Your control variable has a leak. If Oman is absorbing transshipment demand for the UAE (those truck convoys), its relative stability in Chinese exports reflects rerouted Gulf demand, not an unaffected baseline. That contaminates the comparison. Real consumption drops across blockaded countries are probably steeper than bilateral data shows, because some of what registers as "Oman demand" is UAE demand wearing a different shipping label. Pakistan might be the only clean control in the set.
I don’t see where this necessarily means what it looks like in terms of effective economic pressure on Iran.
How would we have data for shadow fleets, transshipments, Black Sea runs in either direction in the blockade on Iran?
And we’re still looking at causing famine, potential supply chain disruptions including medicines, and I’m sorry if it sounds harsh guys, but I must end by saying that ‘Fan’ means fanatic.
Beyond a JCPOA-LIKE agreement, which was already on the table Feb 28th, what more do you think the US can get?
The Iranian middle class is the only group who could enact the reforms we would all like to see, how is harming their relative position against the Revolutionary Guard supposed to help achieve that?
Interestingly, this entire analysis would not be necessary if trump hadn't started this boneheaded war that will lead to a worse deal than the one that was hashed out in 2015.
Your control variable has a leak. If Oman is absorbing transshipment demand for the UAE (those truck convoys), its relative stability in Chinese exports reflects rerouted Gulf demand, not an unaffected baseline. That contaminates the comparison. Real consumption drops across blockaded countries are probably steeper than bilateral data shows, because some of what registers as "Oman demand" is UAE demand wearing a different shipping label. Pakistan might be the only clean control in the set.
I don’t see where this necessarily means what it looks like in terms of effective economic pressure on Iran.
How would we have data for shadow fleets, transshipments, Black Sea runs in either direction in the blockade on Iran?
And we’re still looking at causing famine, potential supply chain disruptions including medicines, and I’m sorry if it sounds harsh guys, but I must end by saying that ‘Fan’ means fanatic.
Beyond a JCPOA-LIKE agreement, which was already on the table Feb 28th, what more do you think the US can get?
The Iranian middle class is the only group who could enact the reforms we would all like to see, how is harming their relative position against the Revolutionary Guard supposed to help achieve that?
Interestingly, this entire analysis would not be necessary if trump hadn't started this boneheaded war that will lead to a worse deal than the one that was hashed out in 2015.
Is this all exports, including land routes?
"How quickly this brings Iran to the negotiating table in good faith remains an open question unfortunately."
Sadly, we can not expect the Trump regime to negotiate in good faith ever.