Safe havens rarely behave like safe havens in the very short term.
In real shocks, investors often sell what they can, not what they want. Gold’s strong prior performance may have made it a source of liquidity rather than a source of protection.
The deeper issue still seems to be fiscal credibility and long-term monetary discipline. In that sense, the safe-haven debate is structural, not tactical.
An interesting take on gold. I thought that you were bearish gold until that last sentence. Whatever view one holds on gold, that was worth reading for the counter-balance to the ‘buy gold and don’t think’ crew.
Safe havens rarely behave like safe havens in the very short term.
In real shocks, investors often sell what they can, not what they want. Gold’s strong prior performance may have made it a source of liquidity rather than a source of protection.
The deeper issue still seems to be fiscal credibility and long-term monetary discipline. In that sense, the safe-haven debate is structural, not tactical.
If your leveraged into gold to ride the bull. Chances are you need to make margin calls when the missiles fly.
Many factors contributing to PM declines. ME war, Trump asking for 200 Billion. Yes we will print.
An interesting take on gold. I thought that you were bearish gold until that last sentence. Whatever view one holds on gold, that was worth reading for the counter-balance to the ‘buy gold and don’t think’ crew.
Gold is moving inversely with crude each day since war began. Oil is its own safe haven when the risk-off event is oil disruption.
I’ve felt lonely in thinking the markets are wildly underpricing the potential chaos. Iran has every incentive to stretch this as long as possible.
yeah the Monday rally seems completely bonkers to me
While I agree with you on this Robin, there are specific nuances that require careful examination. I invite you to briefly peruse my latest take on this issue, here: https://substack.com/@ignaciopericet/note/c-230344045?r=6tu8jf&utm_source=notes-share-action&utm_medium=web
What kind of save haven has a 15% drop in a couple of weeks? There’s literally no other “safe haven” trade out there besides this gambling?