More US shadow fleet sanctions needed
More US sanctions on shadow fleet ships will do more damage than secondary tariffs
The EU and UK unleashed a veritable barrage of sanctions on shadow fleet vessels in recent months. The EU now sanctions a stunning 444 ships, while the UK number has risen to 423. The US has not matched this wave of sanctions. It’s sanctioned 216 ships, a number that’s stood unchanged since January. The most effective thing the Trump administration can do to weaken Russia is to sanction more shadow fleet ships. Oil tankers are Putin’s Achilles heel. He desperately needs them to export oil to global markets. More US sanctions would add to the hit Russia has already taken thanks to the EU and UK and carry less risk than secondary tariffs on India and China, which may re-escalate the global trade war.
We’ve done lots of work at Brookings to show that sanctions on the shadow fleet are highly effective. Ben Harris, Liam Marshall and I recently published a report showing that US sanctions are especially effective at shutting down shadow fleet activity. EU and UK sanctions also pack a punch, but work best when they’re done jointly with the US. The recent wave of EU and UK sanctions are a big window of opportunity for the Trump administration now. As the Venn diagram above shows, there’s 359 ships that are sanctioned by the EU and/or UK that aren’t currently sanctioned by the US. The single most effective thing the US can do to hurt Russia is to sanction these vessels as well. US sanctions carry extra punch because the fear of secondary sanctions is far greater than for the EU and UK. Doing this would add to the already considerable damage to Russia from Western sanctions and would certainly get Putin’s attention.
Secondary tariffs - in contrast - come with substantial risk, as Ben Harris and I outline in a recent blog post for the Harvard Kennedy School. These tariffs aren’t imposed on Russia but on countries like India or China. They therefore re-escalate the trade war with all the adverse consequences this will bring. It’d be much more efficient and effective for the US to join European efforts to shut down the shadow fleet.
thanks Robin. Can i just clarify that if the US sanctioned the extra shadow fleet that the UK/EU already do, am i right in saying, all that would mean is Russia would be forced to NOT use the shadow fleet i.e. use legitimate EU ships. And that would mean receiving an oil price that is equal to the price cap of $60 (and $47.60 from beginning of sept). i.e. it would not stop the volume of oil sold, but would reduce the price that Russia receives? Thank you
Very high quality work and as always expressed with great clarity and viewpoint. Can you also explain exactly what sanctioning a ship means in practice?