The elasticity framework from 2022 is a useful reference.
One thing worth watching this time is whether energy equities and refining margins begin moving ahead of crude itself. In past cycles, those signals often appear before the full macro impact shows up in currencies and broader markets.
Oil sets the tone, but the structure of the energy complex usually moves first.
Brent oil and Qatari LNG will be key. Strategic oil stocks can buffer disruptions, but there is no equivalent gas reserve to absorb a halt in Qatari LNG shipments.
https://substack.com/@saxxoncreative/note/c-224598575?r=22fayp
The elasticity framework from 2022 is a useful reference.
One thing worth watching this time is whether energy equities and refining margins begin moving ahead of crude itself. In past cycles, those signals often appear before the full macro impact shows up in currencies and broader markets.
Oil sets the tone, but the structure of the energy complex usually moves first.
Qué cantidad de fertilizantes que pasan por Hormuz?
Muy a tener en cuenta
Brent oil and Qatari LNG will be key. Strategic oil stocks can buffer disruptions, but there is no equivalent gas reserve to absorb a halt in Qatari LNG shipments.