Strong Foreign Travel to the US
Foreign tourist arrivals in the US - especially from Europe - remain buoyant
In the months since the inauguration, US policies have caused affront abroad, especially in Europe where the dominant narrative is one of betrayal. This has even prompted speculation in some circles that tourist arrivals in the US could collapse, with foreigners boycotting the US as a travel destination. The Financial Times put out a much publicized story to this effect a few months ago and airlines have been warning of a collapse in travel to the US.
The data tell a different story. Tourist arrivals in the US remain strong, including from Europe. Indeed, Italian tourist arrivals posted a new all-time high in April, so - in some cases - it even looks like the US is gaining popularity as a destination. I don’t want to make too much of this. The latest data only go through April and time will tell. But there’s a parallel I want to highlight. When the West put sanctions on Russia following its terrible invasion of Ukraine, some of the strongest opposition came from Western energy and shipping companies, which tilted the popular narrative against things like the G7 oil price cap on Russia. This was essentially corporate lobbying - these firms saw sanctions as a threat to their profitability - and was surprisingly effective. It may be similar now.
The charts show monthly tourist arrivals into the US from January 2015 to April 2025, the latest month for which data are available. Source for these data is the National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO). Travel is highly seasonal, so I seasonally adjust these data. This means you can compare arrivals during the peak summer vacation season with arrivals at other times of the year. Data are for Germany (top left), Italy (top right), Spain (bottom left) and the UK (bottom right). The scale of these charts is different, with tourism from the UK by far the most important across these four countries, followed by Germany and Italy.
What’s notable is that there’s no collapse in foreign travel to the US. In fact, in one case - Italy - arrivals posted a new all-time high in April 2025. Whatever affront there is, it’s not yet made its way into European tourist arrivals into the US. Of course, it’s early days, but my experience from covering Western sanctions on Russia taught me that the globalization lobby - which includes the travel industry - is very powerful. Better to avoid corporate spin and focus on what’s actually going on in the data.
I’d be cautious about drawing conclusions from the arrivals data. The Weaker dollar may have helped eg sterling was about 5% stronger in April 25 than a year earlier. I‘d also revisit the seasonal adjustment. You need to allow for the variable date of Easter, which is important eg for holidays from the UK. A late Easter, like this year, will be good for traveling with kids and the weather may help also.
US airfares were almost 8% lower in April 2025 than a year earliest. Lower hotel and car rental prices too.. Airplane load factors were lower also.
So the airlines weren‘t just lobbying They took a real hit because demand was lower in terms of load factors and prices. To get a full picture, you need to change the s.a. (Airfare, hotel and car rental too) and estimate a few equations. The lower demand will show in negative residuals for volumes, airfares, hotel prices etc. expect these reside to correlate.
Mr. Robin, it wasn’t just the Financial Times that predicted a slump — nearly all major European media seemed to take part in a coordinated campaign to scare people into thinking that going to the U.S. would mean ending up in jail. Sources include Le Monde, Corriere della Sera (along with virtually every Italian newspaper), and The Guardian.