The Political Apocalypse in Germany

The single biggest shock facing Europe is the massive rise of the AfD since the election

The popularity of the AfD has risen massively since the federal election in February. In the space of just nine months, it’s become Germany’s most popular party. The fact that its popularity is growing so quickly is a political earthquake for Europe. Will a Germany with AfD in power defend the Baltics or Poland should Russia attack? Given its pro-Russia leanings, that’s an open question. Will the AfD pull Germany out of the Euro once in power? The AfD got its start as an anti-Euro party in 2013, so this is also on the menu. There is, in short, nothing more systemic or urgent in Europe right now.

Today’s post documents the huge rise in AfD popularity since February, what’s driving it and what the political center needs to do to stop hemorrhaging voters. Lots of stuff is driving voter dissatisfaction currently, including the high cost of living and the fact that German industry is struggling. But the number one issue the AfD campaigns on is immigration, which it does because this is where voter dissatisfaction is deepest. It is this issue the political center needs to appropriate and address forcefully. That may be unpleasant, but it’s better than the alternative, which is AfD coming into power.

The blue bars in the chart above are federal election results from February. The red bars are the latest polls from a few days ago. AfD has seen a surge in popularity since the election and is now Germany’s most popular party. What’s especially worrying is the speed with which this has happened. After all, it’s only been nine months since the election. There’s been no honeymoon whatsoever for the CDU - SPD grand coalition that’s now running Germany.

The chart above shows that it’s parties in the political center that are hemorrhaging voters. The AfD is up almost six percentage points between the February election and now. The center right CDU is the biggest loser, followed by the center left SPD. The Greens (progressive left) and FDP (pro-business center) are also suffering.

There’s lots going on in Germany at the moment, but - when it comes to the surge in AfD popularity - you don’t need to overthink it. The AfD is relentlessly campaigning on immigration, which tells you that this is what resonates most with voters. Indeed, as the chart above shows, the rise in AfD popularity since its inception in 2013 closely tracks the foreign population in Germany, which began to rise sharply after the first immigration wave in 2015. A key driver of the recent surge in AfD popularity is that the CDU - SPD grand coalition is proving itself incapable of confronting immigration with the urgency many voters want. Time is running out for the political center in Germany.

To be fair to the new government, it has largely stopped the ongoing immigration flow into Germany as the chart above shows. But immigration at this point is both a “flow” and a “stock” problem. A series of violent attacks in recent years involved people who should have been deported but weren’t. Much more needs to be done to address the “stock” issue by deporting people whose asylum claims have been denied.

At the end of the day, here’s what really worries me. Germany has a terribly history, which makes immigration almost impossible to discuss. Most Germans don’t voice their dissatisfaction with what’s going on because you very quickly get called a Nazi or a racist. They stay silent and - increasingly - vote for the AfD. The only way out of this quagmire is for the grand coalition to appropriate this issue and take it away from the AfD. Chancellor Merz has repeatedly tried exactly that, but every time he does this he gets shouted down by the center left. The only winner in this dysfunction is the AfD, which is why it’s surging in the polls.

As David Frum famously said about the US in 2019: “If liberals won’t enforce borders, fascists will.” Unfortunately, that’s as true for Germany as it is for the United States.