The danger with Anglo-Saxon observation on European politics was, and always will be, a bias that is frequently distorted by not speaking the language. I don't speak German, but do speak Italian and French, two prime examples of the English language press, polls and commentators' getting it wrong. First with Meloni, written off as an extreme right wing fascist, when it was obvious to anyone on the ground that she nothing of the sort; she now is heading into her 4th year of arguably the most effective and stable Italian government since the new the Constitution of the Italian Republic in 1948. Over in France, Macron has been equally been written off so many times it's joke, I admit by the mainly biased British press, only not one of them seems to get their heads around the fact a French President is in power for 7 years, and what happens to the politicians underneath him is basically cabinet reshuffling. Impeachment, c'est quoi ça? Back to Germany: "German far right founds new youth wing in face of protests - According to police, at least 25,000 protesters descended on the central town of Giessen near Frankfurt to oppose the AfD event." (via the https://www.thelocal.de/). That doesn't sound like the 'other' German youth is staying silent.
Thanks for your comment. I'm actually half German and grew up in Hessen just outside of Frankfurt. So don't let my name fool you. I'm a German with Migrationshintergrund.
Very funny ! There may well be a market for a reasonably understandable periodic columne on monetary issues. The Eurosystem is a complex structure and business media do a very poor job with professional and reporting and explaining. Hans-Werner Sinn and Thomas Mayer (formerly Deutsche Bank) occasionally fill some gaps, but most everybody in Europe is just uneasy. Periodic reporting of the ECB, and of national central banks, became quite difficult to read even for someone with a, how ever dated, master-level understanding of monetary economics and finance. It would be great if you would find this useful.
I was only just thinking that my dig was overly influenced by the mainly British press coverage of all things European. Apologies, as you are highlighting data driven analysis of political trends, which is important and needs to be emphasised.
No problem. It’s a difficult issue and leads to lots of accusations. My frustration is with all the name calling that happens on this in Germany. It’s easy to accuse people of being Nazis or racists. It’s not easy to address the problem.
I grew up in a small village outside Frankfurt. Immigration is very visible there and it scares people. That’s partly because the local population is old and then the immigrants are overwhelmingly young men. I go back all the time and see this first hand…
Thanks. With 30–32% of Switzerland’s total resident population foreign born, immigration has always been a subject on the boil under the surface here. La Lega dei Ticinesi 1991, separate to, although with links to Salvini's Lega, in the Swiss Italian Canton of Ticino, was founded in large part due to immigration issues, provoked by the influx of refugees from the Bosnia War. This was ages before the real refugee crisis caused by the wars in Syria and Libya. So in some ways I see these parties as a forerunners of the current populist movements, of course with completely different origins. I have been Downunder for 20 years, coming back four years ago, and it's fascinating how that good old French expression still holds true "Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose"!
The major problem today is that people confuse the far right of today with the far right from 80 years ago, even though they are essentially opposites.
The left from 100 years ago believed in a more balanced world, where people could freely practice their religions and where social justice was valued. It also believed in hard work and was fundamentally pacifist.
Meanwhile, 80–100 years ago, the far right was associated with fascism, intolerance, xenophobia, and a strict form of socialism.
Today, the roles have reversed.
The left has become intolerant and authoritarian; it opposes work, dislikes technological progress and free practice of religions, and resists advancement.
The right, on the other hand, aims to protect people from harm, supports progress and social justice, and defends workers from a left that seeks to dismantle everything.
This is why we should not confuse the right of today with the right from 80 years ago.
Yes, that is the likely path forward, but what I am flagging is the massive rise in popularity of the AfD in just 9 months. These kind of firewalls in the rest of Europe don’t work well, because they only lead to more support for the extreme right.
This analysis is far too simplistic. I would go as far as call it naive.
The Union hasn’t been hesitant to address migration issues. They were heavily campaigning on it to win the election. Even the old (leftist) government changed their way of speaking on the issue. There is absolutely no basis to say, this is not discussed openly. And the new government acts on it: It closed borders massively and deportations have risen 25% in first half of 25.
In fact, the very narrative you are promoting here is the core to the success of the AFD. They are successfull in rhetorically framing everything that is done or said as not enough, and everything that would be enough as “forbidden by political correctness”. But what could they actually do, that isn’t done right now?
Thanks for your comment. As I say in my piece, closing the border is one thing. That deals with the flow. The other issue is the stock and the question is whether deportations are up enough to quickly reverse public sentiment. Given the sharp rise in the polls of the AfD, I would say it's clearly not enough. Expectations for the new government on this issue were high and I don't think they're being met. You may not like that, but I think that's pretty clear.
Looks like I didn't put it clearly enough. I did not comment on my political preference nor what should be called enough or not. What I was trying to say is, the afd will frame anything that is done as not enough. The AFD ist not an anti migration party. They are an anti party. Their business is seeding doubt and fear and harvesting it when grown ripe. They've been doing this very successfully for many years now, switching their agenda whatever suits their strategy. So: They will take whatever narrative could be used to attack whatever is remotely "establishment". At the moment this is migration. But their success is not a measure on policy. It is a measure of how unhappy the population is and of how many people are accessible for frustration agendas.
I don’t get why the AfD is labeled “fascist” whatever they say. Their political line looks like one that’s legitimate to have, seeing from the outside. It’s basically anti-woke conservatism. Their label as fascist looks like an attempt to establishment parties to cling on power regardless of the opinions of common people. This is remarkable in the worst sense.
Maybe the industrialists need low wages workforce in the form of immigrants to stay competitive. If this is the case, you’ll see Merz moves to “crack down illegal immigration” as purely cosmetic performance
Clear parallel in UK, as the centre left fails to respond to immigration issues and repeatedly shoot itself in both feet. Almost every policy move is a gift to Reform, who are maintaining, now increasing heir already solid lead in the polls. They even had their first victory in Scotland last week. That was unimaginable just a year ago.
The CDU broke multiple election promises, the SPD support is at around 13%, they are exhausted. Plus German industry is increasingly exiting the country, plus pension crisis, healthcare costs rising hugely...and if H-W. Sinn gives the AfD the thumbs up economically....what could one expect? Its sad...but Germany i fear is cooked.
why always fascism closes borders? i don’t have recollection of free borders in the european communist countries. it was not easy to enter and exit the DDR heaven. europeans are not racists at all, they are simply complaining about the double standards: immigrants live off welfare, often don’t comply with the law and don’t pay a price for it while nationals are subjected to the opposite. double standards are the issues. i lived 8 years in Switzerland, both French and German areas and never felt unwelcome. was it because i respected the rules? same where i live now.
No, it’s not enough. Long tedious argument follows: WHY is Russia waging war? Color revolution, NATO expansion yada yada - Putin has explained all of this numerous times.
The danger with Anglo-Saxon observation on European politics was, and always will be, a bias that is frequently distorted by not speaking the language. I don't speak German, but do speak Italian and French, two prime examples of the English language press, polls and commentators' getting it wrong. First with Meloni, written off as an extreme right wing fascist, when it was obvious to anyone on the ground that she nothing of the sort; she now is heading into her 4th year of arguably the most effective and stable Italian government since the new the Constitution of the Italian Republic in 1948. Over in France, Macron has been equally been written off so many times it's joke, I admit by the mainly biased British press, only not one of them seems to get their heads around the fact a French President is in power for 7 years, and what happens to the politicians underneath him is basically cabinet reshuffling. Impeachment, c'est quoi ça? Back to Germany: "German far right founds new youth wing in face of protests - According to police, at least 25,000 protesters descended on the central town of Giessen near Frankfurt to oppose the AfD event." (via the https://www.thelocal.de/). That doesn't sound like the 'other' German youth is staying silent.
Thanks for your comment. I'm actually half German and grew up in Hessen just outside of Frankfurt. So don't let my name fool you. I'm a German with Migrationshintergrund.
Very funny ! There may well be a market for a reasonably understandable periodic columne on monetary issues. The Eurosystem is a complex structure and business media do a very poor job with professional and reporting and explaining. Hans-Werner Sinn and Thomas Mayer (formerly Deutsche Bank) occasionally fill some gaps, but most everybody in Europe is just uneasy. Periodic reporting of the ECB, and of national central banks, became quite difficult to read even for someone with a, how ever dated, master-level understanding of monetary economics and finance. It would be great if you would find this useful.
I was only just thinking that my dig was overly influenced by the mainly British press coverage of all things European. Apologies, as you are highlighting data driven analysis of political trends, which is important and needs to be emphasised.
No problem. It’s a difficult issue and leads to lots of accusations. My frustration is with all the name calling that happens on this in Germany. It’s easy to accuse people of being Nazis or racists. It’s not easy to address the problem.
I grew up in a small village outside Frankfurt. Immigration is very visible there and it scares people. That’s partly because the local population is old and then the immigrants are overwhelmingly young men. I go back all the time and see this first hand…
Thanks. With 30–32% of Switzerland’s total resident population foreign born, immigration has always been a subject on the boil under the surface here. La Lega dei Ticinesi 1991, separate to, although with links to Salvini's Lega, in the Swiss Italian Canton of Ticino, was founded in large part due to immigration issues, provoked by the influx of refugees from the Bosnia War. This was ages before the real refugee crisis caused by the wars in Syria and Libya. So in some ways I see these parties as a forerunners of the current populist movements, of course with completely different origins. I have been Downunder for 20 years, coming back four years ago, and it's fascinating how that good old French expression still holds true "Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose"!
The major problem today is that people confuse the far right of today with the far right from 80 years ago, even though they are essentially opposites.
The left from 100 years ago believed in a more balanced world, where people could freely practice their religions and where social justice was valued. It also believed in hard work and was fundamentally pacifist.
Meanwhile, 80–100 years ago, the far right was associated with fascism, intolerance, xenophobia, and a strict form of socialism.
Today, the roles have reversed.
The left has become intolerant and authoritarian; it opposes work, dislikes technological progress and free practice of religions, and resists advancement.
The right, on the other hand, aims to protect people from harm, supports progress and social justice, and defends workers from a left that seeks to dismantle everything.
This is why we should not confuse the right of today with the right from 80 years ago.
What coalition different from CDU-SPD-Green, CDU-SPD-FDP is possible?
Under a quasi proportional system, and a robust cordon saniataire, it is hard to see anything but eternal GrosseKoalition…
Yes, that is the likely path forward, but what I am flagging is the massive rise in popularity of the AfD in just 9 months. These kind of firewalls in the rest of Europe don’t work well, because they only lead to more support for the extreme right.
It is not nice, but look at NL, DK, SE… all the highly proportional systems have resisted.
Where is the true risk? UK and FR (First Past the post and Presidentialism).Lijphart varieties of democracy, the bible of empíric Political Science.
This analysis is far too simplistic. I would go as far as call it naive.
The Union hasn’t been hesitant to address migration issues. They were heavily campaigning on it to win the election. Even the old (leftist) government changed their way of speaking on the issue. There is absolutely no basis to say, this is not discussed openly. And the new government acts on it: It closed borders massively and deportations have risen 25% in first half of 25.
In fact, the very narrative you are promoting here is the core to the success of the AFD. They are successfull in rhetorically framing everything that is done or said as not enough, and everything that would be enough as “forbidden by political correctness”. But what could they actually do, that isn’t done right now?
Thanks for your comment. As I say in my piece, closing the border is one thing. That deals with the flow. The other issue is the stock and the question is whether deportations are up enough to quickly reverse public sentiment. Given the sharp rise in the polls of the AfD, I would say it's clearly not enough. Expectations for the new government on this issue were high and I don't think they're being met. You may not like that, but I think that's pretty clear.
Germany has 70 knife-attack per day. The government is doing absolutely nothing.
That’s what AfD will solve.
Wait for the AfD to win and see what they do.
It’s my deep belief that the 2015 migration crisis will kill the EU eventually.
You’re talking about Germany, but France’s far right is on the verge on gaining power, as well as UK’s UKIP.
Looks like I didn't put it clearly enough. I did not comment on my political preference nor what should be called enough or not. What I was trying to say is, the afd will frame anything that is done as not enough. The AFD ist not an anti migration party. They are an anti party. Their business is seeding doubt and fear and harvesting it when grown ripe. They've been doing this very successfully for many years now, switching their agenda whatever suits their strategy. So: They will take whatever narrative could be used to attack whatever is remotely "establishment". At the moment this is migration. But their success is not a measure on policy. It is a measure of how unhappy the population is and of how many people are accessible for frustration agendas.
I don’t get why the AfD is labeled “fascist” whatever they say. Their political line looks like one that’s legitimate to have, seeing from the outside. It’s basically anti-woke conservatism. Their label as fascist looks like an attempt to establishment parties to cling on power regardless of the opinions of common people. This is remarkable in the worst sense.
Maybe the industrialists need low wages workforce in the form of immigrants to stay competitive. If this is the case, you’ll see Merz moves to “crack down illegal immigration” as purely cosmetic performance
Clear parallel in UK, as the centre left fails to respond to immigration issues and repeatedly shoot itself in both feet. Almost every policy move is a gift to Reform, who are maintaining, now increasing heir already solid lead in the polls. They even had their first victory in Scotland last week. That was unimaginable just a year ago.
The CDU broke multiple election promises, the SPD support is at around 13%, they are exhausted. Plus German industry is increasingly exiting the country, plus pension crisis, healthcare costs rising hugely...and if H-W. Sinn gives the AfD the thumbs up economically....what could one expect? Its sad...but Germany i fear is cooked.
why always fascism closes borders? i don’t have recollection of free borders in the european communist countries. it was not easy to enter and exit the DDR heaven. europeans are not racists at all, they are simply complaining about the double standards: immigrants live off welfare, often don’t comply with the law and don’t pay a price for it while nationals are subjected to the opposite. double standards are the issues. i lived 8 years in Switzerland, both French and German areas and never felt unwelcome. was it because i respected the rules? same where i live now.
Do you honestly believe Russia wants to attack the Baltics? Why should Germany not have normal relations with Russia?
Because Russia is waging war on Ukraine. Is that not enough?
No, it’s not enough. Long tedious argument follows: WHY is Russia waging war? Color revolution, NATO expansion yada yada - Putin has explained all of this numerous times.