Lower expected front end yields are supposed to steepen curves ... Implying higher back-end forward rates (which are more sensitive to slope than level)
I'm a subsciber now. I think. I'm not following why you think the fed will cut and yet you acknowledge the massive fiscal imbalances in the US and Japan for example. I understand politically the urge to get or stand pat and our massive debt. And yet there is a breakout in 10 and 30 year yields occuring which should get Warsh's attention.
Europe needs a Javier Milei.
Lower expected front end yields are supposed to steepen curves ... Implying higher back-end forward rates (which are more sensitive to slope than level)
Interesting chart showing yields across developed markets. But here's what's missing: the real crisis narrative.
In developed economies, debt isn't acute. Global debt as % of GDP fell from 360% to 305% since 2020. US balance sheet is $181T in the black.
I wrote about this: The Debt Crisis Is a Myth. The fear is money illusion, not reality.
I'm a subsciber now. I think. I'm not following why you think the fed will cut and yet you acknowledge the massive fiscal imbalances in the US and Japan for example. I understand politically the urge to get or stand pat and our massive debt. And yet there is a breakout in 10 and 30 year yields occuring which should get Warsh's attention.
What a terrific piece today, bringing it all together in two charts (in addition to your yield-vs-debt chart ... JP vs DE).