People often argue that immigration is down, so it cannot be the driver anymore. But politically, voters don’t experience only the latest flow. They experience the accumulated pressure around schools, housing, public services, neighbourhood change, and trust in the state.
In that sense the reaction can keep building even after the flow has slowed.
The AfD’s rise cannot be explained by immigration statistics alone. The real issue is decades of wage stagnation, housing shortages, public-sector decline and growing inequality. Instead of confronting the economic failures that benefit capital, elites redirect frustration toward migrants. The far right feeds on social insecurity, but migrants did not create Germany’s crises. Scapegoating is easier than challenging the system that produced them.
Germany has already learned where nationalism, ethnic blame and far-right politics lead. History did not end well in 1945 and repeating the same logic with new targets will not end well today either.
The British left the EU with much jubilation from the right wing. But today after nearly a decade of experience the mood is not so triumphalist. Maybe Germany needs to do a Gexit and learn this lesson for itself? Ian
Robin and Bernhard both miss something else. This is that that Spain has the highest stock od new immigrants. But Spain is simply less racialist than Germany. One reason for this was the very late arrival of a unified Germany - only achieved 1871 as we all know. But this likely gives anxious Germans increased anxiety about the nation, something the much older united Spain has a lot less of.
The problem with my analysis is 'What is to be done'?
An AFD government would likely follow Trump/Meloni and do several hundred thousand deportations. But will that assuage the feelings of the AFD base. Bit doubtful. So the AFD could be one of the most durable of the populist parties. Ian
Bernhard Kopp isn't wholly correct for he notes that people support the AFD for a diversity of reasons. A greater accent on Robin's stock aspect is likely A REASON for recent increase. Still Bernhard's other factors are also there. the STOCK is symbolizing numerous other discontents quite possibly. Ian
Undoubtedly the " immigration controversies " have become the single most important driver for the political survival of the AfD since about 2016 and the parliamentary elections in 2017. The philosophical, cultural, legal and economic and social controversies are, with rising intensity, more than 25 years old, and some even older. As in several other European countries, the voter dissatisfaction with the legacy parties and the functioning of the parliamentary system and coalition governments has many different reasons. Even a ChatGPT summary states: " No single factor explains all AfD voters. Research generally finds that AfD supporters are a diverse group. Some are primarily motivated by immigration concerns, others by economic frustrations, distrust of established parties, cultural issues, or a combination of these factors. ". In 2017, the AfD gained some 12% of the votes, in 2026 the polls show some 27-29% support. The dynamic is not due to " immigration ".
Maybe Germany could take a lesson from the immigration brutality of the trump regime when it comes to immigration. Wasn't it also the case that Europe was falling behind financially because the birth rate was less than replacement? If GDP is life's goal, then isn't immigration a positive? Just asking. If the neo fascists hate immigrants, just wait until their oligarch, white brethren swamp the economy with AI replacements. No amount of hate or fascism will stop the robot lords.
People generally like stability and seeing themselves in their neighbors. It's comfortable. But as the Santayana observation shows without a doubt. "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it"
I am throwing spaghetti at the wall, but this issue might have other influences beyond immigration. And lastly, as the wealthy extract more from the populace, that leaves less for the vast majority. But immigrants are easier to hate and blame than the wealthy, musk-like overlords who control the narrative....
If you have time, take a look at Gawain Towler’s substack “Fainting in Coils”. He is an authentic voice for Brexit Britain and Reform UK. Immigration is important here, too. But so is the stupid cost of unnecessary net zero, making our power bills too high and killing industrial jobs. (Unnecessary because co2 follows temperature so cannot drive; see ice cores).
Europe did not think through its legal and illegal immigration policies and without getting ugly is at risk at losing its Europeaness. To stop the right wing parties the left and the center will need to take this issue away from them.
I think the stock vs flow point matters a lot.
People often argue that immigration is down, so it cannot be the driver anymore. But politically, voters don’t experience only the latest flow. They experience the accumulated pressure around schools, housing, public services, neighbourhood change, and trust in the state.
In that sense the reaction can keep building even after the flow has slowed.
The AfD’s rise cannot be explained by immigration statistics alone. The real issue is decades of wage stagnation, housing shortages, public-sector decline and growing inequality. Instead of confronting the economic failures that benefit capital, elites redirect frustration toward migrants. The far right feeds on social insecurity, but migrants did not create Germany’s crises. Scapegoating is easier than challenging the system that produced them.
Germany has already learned where nationalism, ethnic blame and far-right politics lead. History did not end well in 1945 and repeating the same logic with new targets will not end well today either.
The British left the EU with much jubilation from the right wing. But today after nearly a decade of experience the mood is not so triumphalist. Maybe Germany needs to do a Gexit and learn this lesson for itself? Ian
Robin and Bernhard both miss something else. This is that that Spain has the highest stock od new immigrants. But Spain is simply less racialist than Germany. One reason for this was the very late arrival of a unified Germany - only achieved 1871 as we all know. But this likely gives anxious Germans increased anxiety about the nation, something the much older united Spain has a lot less of.
The problem with my analysis is 'What is to be done'?
An AFD government would likely follow Trump/Meloni and do several hundred thousand deportations. But will that assuage the feelings of the AFD base. Bit doubtful. So the AFD could be one of the most durable of the populist parties. Ian
Bernhard Kopp isn't wholly correct for he notes that people support the AFD for a diversity of reasons. A greater accent on Robin's stock aspect is likely A REASON for recent increase. Still Bernhard's other factors are also there. the STOCK is symbolizing numerous other discontents quite possibly. Ian
Undoubtedly the " immigration controversies " have become the single most important driver for the political survival of the AfD since about 2016 and the parliamentary elections in 2017. The philosophical, cultural, legal and economic and social controversies are, with rising intensity, more than 25 years old, and some even older. As in several other European countries, the voter dissatisfaction with the legacy parties and the functioning of the parliamentary system and coalition governments has many different reasons. Even a ChatGPT summary states: " No single factor explains all AfD voters. Research generally finds that AfD supporters are a diverse group. Some are primarily motivated by immigration concerns, others by economic frustrations, distrust of established parties, cultural issues, or a combination of these factors. ". In 2017, the AfD gained some 12% of the votes, in 2026 the polls show some 27-29% support. The dynamic is not due to " immigration ".
It's mass immigration that's the problem, facilitated by the political elites over the last 20 to 30 years
Maybe Germany could take a lesson from the immigration brutality of the trump regime when it comes to immigration. Wasn't it also the case that Europe was falling behind financially because the birth rate was less than replacement? If GDP is life's goal, then isn't immigration a positive? Just asking. If the neo fascists hate immigrants, just wait until their oligarch, white brethren swamp the economy with AI replacements. No amount of hate or fascism will stop the robot lords.
People generally like stability and seeing themselves in their neighbors. It's comfortable. But as the Santayana observation shows without a doubt. "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it"
I am throwing spaghetti at the wall, but this issue might have other influences beyond immigration. And lastly, as the wealthy extract more from the populace, that leaves less for the vast majority. But immigrants are easier to hate and blame than the wealthy, musk-like overlords who control the narrative....
If you have time, take a look at Gawain Towler’s substack “Fainting in Coils”. He is an authentic voice for Brexit Britain and Reform UK. Immigration is important here, too. But so is the stupid cost of unnecessary net zero, making our power bills too high and killing industrial jobs. (Unnecessary because co2 follows temperature so cannot drive; see ice cores).
He’s good on churches, as well.
Europe did not think through its legal and illegal immigration policies and without getting ugly is at risk at losing its Europeaness. To stop the right wing parties the left and the center will need to take this issue away from them.
by deporting millions which is likely too icky for them to undertake.