Even a China hawk like Robin now has to concede that China is winning this round of the trade and industrial competition. Yet the tariffs, export controls and sanctions he supports have failed to weaken China. They have weakened the industrial competitiveness of the United States and Europe while accelerating the diversification of Chinese companies into the rest of the world.
But is China’s export growth really “flooding” and damaging the Global South? Vietnam provides an unusually clear answer.
In the first half of 2026, Vietnam’s exports rose 21%, while imports surged 33.4%. Imports of computers, electronics and components increased 62%, and machinery, equipment, tools and spare parts rose 22.9%. These are overwhelmingly production inputs: semiconductors, electronic components, machinery, equipment and raw materials used to expand factories, upgrade capacity and fulfil future export orders. This is what an accelerating industrialisation cycle looks like.
Vietnam ran a $77.3 billion trade deficit with China, while recording a $75.3 billion surplus with the United States. The symmetry is difficult to miss. China’s surplus with Vietnam is the upstream industrial counterpart of Vietnam’s surplus with America. Chinese components and machinery enter Vietnam; Vietnamese factories transform them into electronics, computers, phones and other manufactured goods for the US and global markets.
China’s rapidly growing exports to Vietnam have not crushed Vietnamese industrialisation. They are helping to power it. Calling every increase in Chinese exports a new “China Shock” misses the actual structure of Asian manufacturing: China increasingly supplies the industrial inputs, while countries such as Vietnam expand their own production, employment and exports around them.
I think you also need to consider, in the total equation, how much money is China making with this trade. Are they taking losses to flood the market? If so, that isn't winning, That's just playing dirty and sacrificing gains now in the hopes they can shut down other suppliers. Sometimes that strategy works. sometimes it doesnt.
It is understandably fashionable to wish that we had never begun the trade war. Indeed, doing nothing to change policy would seem quite preferable to that clownish liberation day last April that had us putting tariffs on the penguins on Heard Island but not Putin.
I personally wish the trade war had been conducted ALONGSIDE our allies such that China and Russia were everyone’s target. I suspect it would have been easy enough to run it through Congress.
But that was simply not to be since instead of fighting to extract terms from the world’s most predatory economy, the regime of course opted for chaos & corruption.
Again, Everything (a very small amount we get from Russia) is just raw materials we need. Much like bananas. Some tariffs only hurt the private sector and cause inflation
Joe Biden calling putin names was so effective it probably caused the war. Meanwhile oil prices surged because he campaigned against fossil fuels and he pissed off the Saudis by playing footsie with iran so they wouldn't do anything he asked either.
Meanwhile the Saudis started doing what trump asked even before he took office.
One moment Biden is said to have upset the Saudis but in the next sentence they do everything he wants, it seems. I hadn't realized Biden was so able. Ian
The second paragraph has the word trump in it in case you missed it you illiterate clown. It's hard work making you look this dumb so many times in one day... LOL
I didn't say where we get bananas. My point is we don't grow them here. Once again you read things on your screen that aren't there or just fail to read. I earlier gave you their four biggest imports. it's stuff we either can't make or can't make enough of.
Who cares about what Trump says? It's actions and $$$ that matter.
He always takes nice about Xi but still slaps him with tarrifs. He handles Eastern leaders different than Western leaders. Probably because he thinks they have different mentalities.
Even a China hawk like Robin now has to concede that China is winning this round of the trade and industrial competition. Yet the tariffs, export controls and sanctions he supports have failed to weaken China. They have weakened the industrial competitiveness of the United States and Europe while accelerating the diversification of Chinese companies into the rest of the world.
But is China’s export growth really “flooding” and damaging the Global South? Vietnam provides an unusually clear answer.
In the first half of 2026, Vietnam’s exports rose 21%, while imports surged 33.4%. Imports of computers, electronics and components increased 62%, and machinery, equipment, tools and spare parts rose 22.9%. These are overwhelmingly production inputs: semiconductors, electronic components, machinery, equipment and raw materials used to expand factories, upgrade capacity and fulfil future export orders. This is what an accelerating industrialisation cycle looks like.
Vietnam ran a $77.3 billion trade deficit with China, while recording a $75.3 billion surplus with the United States. The symmetry is difficult to miss. China’s surplus with Vietnam is the upstream industrial counterpart of Vietnam’s surplus with America. Chinese components and machinery enter Vietnam; Vietnamese factories transform them into electronics, computers, phones and other manufactured goods for the US and global markets.
China’s rapidly growing exports to Vietnam have not crushed Vietnamese industrialisation. They are helping to power it. Calling every increase in Chinese exports a new “China Shock” misses the actual structure of Asian manufacturing: China increasingly supplies the industrial inputs, while countries such as Vietnam expand their own production, employment and exports around them.
Entirely predictable. “The reason why tariffs do not reduce the trade deficit is very simple. US demand for imports is determined by US aggregate demand, not by the relative prices of imports from China versus other regions.” https://www.jandehn.com/post/do-not-fight-china-work-with-china
China appears to be managing to GDP growth metrics while debt soars and private companies run at a loss. Chinese employment (excluding subsistence gig workers) falls as they use developing nations for outsourcing and transshipping. Inside the EU it's every nation for itself, with Germany in complete denial. Meanwhile, Trump has focused his tariff war on Brazil. I don't understand anyone's motives, but China is manufacturing a hell of a lot.
Many subsidies are indirect. Very cheap credit, particularly considering the risk. Then there's an undervalued currency and wage suppression. In the background are giant government investments in infrastructure and import controls. One could call much of it "industrial policy". Regardless, there's no "one weird trick" that's going to overcome all that. Particularly if the trade deficit nations don't act in unison as a trade block.
It is understandably fashionable to wish that we had never begun the trade war. Indeed, doing nothing to change policy would seem quite preferable to that clownish liberation day last April that had us putting tariffs on the penguins on Heard Island but not Putin.
I personally wish the trade war had been conducted ALONGSIDE our allies such that China and Russia were everyone’s target. I suspect it would have been easy enough to run it through Congress.
But that was simply not to be since instead of fighting to extract terms from the world’s most predatory economy, the regime of course opted for chaos & corruption.
It is understandably fashionable to wish that we had never begun the trade war. Indeed, doing nothing to change policy would seem quite preferable to that clownish liberation day last April that had us putting tariffs on the penguins on Heard Island but not Putin.
I personally wish the trade war had been conducted ALONGSIDE our allies such that China and Russia were everyone’s target. I suspect it would have been easy enough to run it through Congress.
But that was simply not to be since instead of fighting to extract terms from the world’s most predatory economy, the regime of course opted for chaos & corruption.
It is understandably fashionable to wish that we had never begun the trade war. Indeed, doing nothing to change policy would seem quite preferable to that clownish liberation day last April that had us putting tariffs on the penguins on Heard Island but not Putin.
I personally wish the trade war had been conducted ALONGSIDE our allies such that China and Russia were everyone’s target. I suspect it would have been easy enough to run it through Congress.
But that was simply not to be since instead of fighting to extract terms from the world’s most predatory economy, the regime of course opted for chaos & corruption.
Entirely predictable. “The reason why tariffs do not reduce the trade deficit is very simple. US demand for imports is determined by US aggregate demand, not by the relative prices of imports from China versus other regions. “
Entirely predictable. “The reason why tariffs do not reduce the trade deficit is very simple. US demand for imports is determined by US aggregate demand, not by the relative prices of imports from China versus other regions.” https://www.jandehn.com/post/do-not-fight-china-work-with-china
Entirely predictable. “The reason why tariffs do not reduce the trade deficit is very simple. US demand for imports is determined by US aggregate demand, not by the relative prices of imports from China versus other regions.” https://www.jandehn.com/post/do-not-fight-china-work-with-china
Even a China hawk like Robin now has to concede that China is winning this round of the trade and industrial competition. Yet the tariffs, export controls and sanctions he supports have failed to weaken China. They have weakened the industrial competitiveness of the United States and Europe while accelerating the diversification of Chinese companies into the rest of the world.
But is China’s export growth really “flooding” and damaging the Global South? Vietnam provides an unusually clear answer.
In the first half of 2026, Vietnam’s exports rose 21%, while imports surged 33.4%. Imports of computers, electronics and components increased 62%, and machinery, equipment, tools and spare parts rose 22.9%. These are overwhelmingly production inputs: semiconductors, electronic components, machinery, equipment and raw materials used to expand factories, upgrade capacity and fulfil future export orders. This is what an accelerating industrialisation cycle looks like.
Vietnam ran a $77.3 billion trade deficit with China, while recording a $75.3 billion surplus with the United States. The symmetry is difficult to miss. China’s surplus with Vietnam is the upstream industrial counterpart of Vietnam’s surplus with America. Chinese components and machinery enter Vietnam; Vietnamese factories transform them into electronics, computers, phones and other manufactured goods for the US and global markets.
China’s rapidly growing exports to Vietnam have not crushed Vietnamese industrialisation. They are helping to power it. Calling every increase in Chinese exports a new “China Shock” misses the actual structure of Asian manufacturing: China increasingly supplies the industrial inputs, while countries such as Vietnam expand their own production, employment and exports around them.
I think you also need to consider, in the total equation, how much money is China making with this trade. Are they taking losses to flood the market? If so, that isn't winning, That's just playing dirty and sacrificing gains now in the hopes they can shut down other suppliers. Sometimes that strategy works. sometimes it doesnt.
So US tariffs are helping the very poor Vietnam it seems. Well that's something perhaps to be said in favor of the tariffs?
It is understandably fashionable to wish that we had never begun the trade war. Indeed, doing nothing to change policy would seem quite preferable to that clownish liberation day last April that had us putting tariffs on the penguins on Heard Island but not Putin.
I personally wish the trade war had been conducted ALONGSIDE our allies such that China and Russia were everyone’s target. I suspect it would have been easy enough to run it through Congress.
But that was simply not to be since instead of fighting to extract terms from the world’s most predatory economy, the regime of course opted for chaos & corruption.
Again, Everything (a very small amount we get from Russia) is just raw materials we need. Much like bananas. Some tariffs only hurt the private sector and cause inflation
You actually think we get bananas from Russia?
Wow, you’re such a waste of time.
How about you show me the time Trump said ANYTHING about Putin’s awful human rights abuses.
It did not happen. That’s because Trump is a Putin asset.
Joe Biden calling putin names was so effective it probably caused the war. Meanwhile oil prices surged because he campaigned against fossil fuels and he pissed off the Saudis by playing footsie with iran so they wouldn't do anything he asked either.
Meanwhile the Saudis started doing what trump asked even before he took office.
One moment Biden is said to have upset the Saudis but in the next sentence they do everything he wants, it seems. I hadn't realized Biden was so able. Ian
The second paragraph has the word trump in it in case you missed it you illiterate clown. It's hard work making you look this dumb so many times in one day... LOL
I didn't say where we get bananas. My point is we don't grow them here. Once again you read things on your screen that aren't there or just fail to read. I earlier gave you their four biggest imports. it's stuff we either can't make or can't make enough of.
Who cares about what Trump says? It's actions and $$$ that matter.
He always takes nice about Xi but still slaps him with tarrifs. He handles Eastern leaders different than Western leaders. Probably because he thinks they have different mentalities.
“Much like bananas”
How does that even belong in a conversation about Russia at all?
You’re a brain damaged moron.
Why dont you show the whole context 12iqer? Cause then it becomes clear? You've proven over and over again your illiteracy
I wouldn't accuse other people of illiteracy if I were you. Ian
It makes no more sense given the context.
You are the head profession of a fucking clown school babbling about bananas being raw materials from Russia.
Even a China hawk like Robin now has to concede that China is winning this round of the trade and industrial competition. Yet the tariffs, export controls and sanctions he supports have failed to weaken China. They have weakened the industrial competitiveness of the United States and Europe while accelerating the diversification of Chinese companies into the rest of the world.
But is China’s export growth really “flooding” and damaging the Global South? Vietnam provides an unusually clear answer.
In the first half of 2026, Vietnam’s exports rose 21%, while imports surged 33.4%. Imports of computers, electronics and components increased 62%, and machinery, equipment, tools and spare parts rose 22.9%. These are overwhelmingly production inputs: semiconductors, electronic components, machinery, equipment and raw materials used to expand factories, upgrade capacity and fulfil future export orders. This is what an accelerating industrialisation cycle looks like.
Vietnam ran a $77.3 billion trade deficit with China, while recording a $75.3 billion surplus with the United States. The symmetry is difficult to miss. China’s surplus with Vietnam is the upstream industrial counterpart of Vietnam’s surplus with America. Chinese components and machinery enter Vietnam; Vietnamese factories transform them into electronics, computers, phones and other manufactured goods for the US and global markets.
China’s rapidly growing exports to Vietnam have not crushed Vietnamese industrialisation. They are helping to power it. Calling every increase in Chinese exports a new “China Shock” misses the actual structure of Asian manufacturing: China increasingly supplies the industrial inputs, while countries such as Vietnam expand their own production, employment and exports around them.
Entirely predictable. “The reason why tariffs do not reduce the trade deficit is very simple. US demand for imports is determined by US aggregate demand, not by the relative prices of imports from China versus other regions.” https://www.jandehn.com/post/do-not-fight-china-work-with-china
But there are numerous ways in which imports can satisfy aggregate demand, ways in which relative prices surely can matter.
China appears to be managing to GDP growth metrics while debt soars and private companies run at a loss. Chinese employment (excluding subsistence gig workers) falls as they use developing nations for outsourcing and transshipping. Inside the EU it's every nation for itself, with Germany in complete denial. Meanwhile, Trump has focused his tariff war on Brazil. I don't understand anyone's motives, but China is manufacturing a hell of a lot.
They're subsidizing the prices of their exports, are they not. Ian
Many subsidies are indirect. Very cheap credit, particularly considering the risk. Then there's an undervalued currency and wage suppression. In the background are giant government investments in infrastructure and import controls. One could call much of it "industrial policy". Regardless, there's no "one weird trick" that's going to overcome all that. Particularly if the trade deficit nations don't act in unison as a trade block.
I don't really care how they affect trade. I'd just much rather be taxing imports than American Labor.
" That’s important because there’s little the EU can do about this."
Ummm. Yes there is.
The first chart isn’t loading correctly on email or in the app.
I had the same problem with google. Did so when I tried Bing. Ian
It is understandably fashionable to wish that we had never begun the trade war. Indeed, doing nothing to change policy would seem quite preferable to that clownish liberation day last April that had us putting tariffs on the penguins on Heard Island but not Putin.
I personally wish the trade war had been conducted ALONGSIDE our allies such that China and Russia were everyone’s target. I suspect it would have been easy enough to run it through Congress.
But that was simply not to be since instead of fighting to extract terms from the world’s most predatory economy, the regime of course opted for chaos & corruption.
It is understandably fashionable to wish that we had never begun the trade war. Indeed, doing nothing to change policy would seem quite preferable to that clownish liberation day last April that had us putting tariffs on the penguins on Heard Island but not Putin.
I personally wish the trade war had been conducted ALONGSIDE our allies such that China and Russia were everyone’s target. I suspect it would have been easy enough to run it through Congress.
But that was simply not to be since instead of fighting to extract terms from the world’s most predatory economy, the regime of course opted for chaos & corruption.
It is understandably fashionable to wish that we had never begun the trade war. Indeed, doing nothing to change policy would seem quite preferable to that clownish liberation day last April that had us putting tariffs on the penguins on Heard Island but not Putin.
I personally wish the trade war had been conducted ALONGSIDE our allies such that China and Russia were everyone’s target. I suspect it would have been easy enough to run it through Congress.
But that was simply not to be since instead of fighting to extract terms from the world’s most predatory economy, the regime of course opted for chaos & corruption.
Entirely predictable. “The reason why tariffs do not reduce the trade deficit is very simple. US demand for imports is determined by US aggregate demand, not by the relative prices of imports from China versus other regions. “
https://www.jandehn.com/post/do-not-fight-china-work-with-china
Entirely predictable. “The reason why tariffs do not reduce the trade deficit is very simple. US demand for imports is determined by US aggregate demand, not by the relative prices of imports from China versus other regions.” https://www.jandehn.com/post/do-not-fight-china-work-with-china
Entirely predictable. “The reason why tariffs do not reduce the trade deficit is very simple. US demand for imports is determined by US aggregate demand, not by the relative prices of imports from China versus other regions.” https://www.jandehn.com/post/do-not-fight-china-work-with-china