Iran won the war because the US lost the war. The latter’s objective was pure and simple: regime change. Yet, the regime is stronger than it has been since at least the green movement. Meanwhile, there is little evidence of meaningful structural damage to Iran’s missile program. And nothing was achieved in degrading Iran’s nuclear program compared to the 12 day war.
Yes, the blockade was effective, but Iran did not capitulate and still extracted more wins from the MOU than it ever managed from the JCPOA, including an unprecedented lifting - albeit temporary - of primary US sanctions on the sale of its oil.
You spent a whole article claiming the blockade was effective. Yes it obviously was. That is not synonymous with Iran not winning the war.
Every day. It’s 175k vs usd compared to 167k pre war. So what? Even if it had doubled, it does not mean iran didn’t win the war. Anyone who claims Iran’s economy didn’t suffer from the war is in cuckoo land. Of course it did. That’s not how you measure win/loss in a war.
Ps. I bet you don’t even know how to check what level the currency is trading at.
Ps2. Have you checked Iran’s stock market? Thought not. It’s up 40% since pre war.
They now have a small 1.7bn of USD that has been unfrozen and ring-fenced to only be used on US agriculture. Noel, your opinions are not accurate to reality they are merely partisan silliness.
Please understand something, politicians are not in charge of the U.S. they are in charge of shaping your opinions. Your opinions do not represent reality in the slightest.
Robin writes for intelligent people that invest.
Would you mind spending your useless comments on a page that’s more suitable for you? Maybe like Hasan Piker or Tucker Carlson where they discuss things that don’t exist?
Iran just had billions in cash flown in from the emirates and their ships are moving through the strait right now. WTF are you here to even blather about?
lol of course you run to Ad Hominem instead of just going away, let alone admitting that you’re wrong.
The Emirates flew them a plane full of cash two weeks ago, and that’s in addition to anything else.
I’ve interacted with Robin a few times and he’s never said my commentary was unwanted or unwarranted. You’re the one who just showed themselves to be a fool by resorting to Ad Hominem instead of addressing what I said.
The reports of UAE giving money to Iran are false. UAE is a petrodollar alliance country they wouldn’t do anything without US orchestrating.
The idea that UAE would “fly a plane full of cash” is imbecilic. USD ring-fenced relief to Iran has not begun. It will come with strict rules on the usage of the digital transaction.
Maybe you should consider that the Iranian government is lying? It’s quite bizarre that you would believe the Iranians given their history of absurd lies. I admit when I’m wrong all the time. This is you being wrong and in an incredibly childlike fashion.
The objective was never regime change. The objective was broadcasted clearly through the memo “Clean Break” written in 1995. In 2003, Wesley Clark explained it as 7 countries-5 years.
The lifting of sanctions ring-fences all the USD requiring it to be used on US agricultural products. To date, only 1.7bn has begun to be lifted and must be spent on US ag.
No, winning a war means that one is able to enforce their political will on the other nation[s].
It is not a matter of graphs or currency or markets.
The fact that they have significant power over the US was shown quite clearly and recently when Trump was about to give them a $330B war chest just to open the strait.
Then Trump only backed off when he couldn’t sell it as a win.
Oh and I’m not gonna put much stock in how folks were or were not able to predict a market as volatile as energy - especially when the physical price for oil has been recorded over $150 in recent weeks.
The data on the blockade is convincing, and I don't doubt it hurt Iran badly - I don't disagree here. But the piece proves a different point than the one in the title.
Economic pain and losing a war aren't the same thing and this distinction is the most important thing when looking at how you define a "win" in war.
Wars are won and lost on political objectives, and the US objective here was regime change. The regime is still standing, arguably more entrenched than before, and the MOU lifted primary sanctions on Iranian oil, something the JCPOA never achieved.
From an Iranian perspective, they fought off the aggressors, albeit at a high cost but one that is not unknown in wartime, and gained concessions around their oil - most importantly however, walked away with their dignity intact. This is something Iranians value strongly, their will, independence and freedom to decide their own fate. Take everything else away and they would see this as a win simply because they are not under the foot of US/Israel. Freedom is priceless.
A country can be economically battered and still walk away having denied its opponent the one outcome that mattered. Needing peace and winning the war aren't mutually exclusive. Both sides can want out, and one can still have gotten more of what it came for.
Both things can be true. The blockade hurt Iran, and the Strait of Hormuz is now an activated pressure point for the world, under Iran’s control. Three hundred billion will help Iran rebuild its destroyed infrastructure, resulting in rapid economic growth for years. No regime change has happened. Put it this way: both countries were forced to the negotiating table, and both are in a worse situation than before the war, but Iran seems to be getting a lot more out of the negotiations than the US.
Many of those who want to have their opinions heard (or even profit from them) sooner or later realize that the easiest way to get attention is by being provocative. Invariably what they find the most appealing is reflexive contrarianism, often of the most outrageous sort.
I am forced to conclude that another one has bitten the dust.
Excellent piece! Definitely a must-read for anyone still claiming that the June 17 Memorandum of Understanding proves Iran "won" the war or that it marked the end of US hegemony in favor of a so-called "multipolar world." 👏📊
As you point out, many of the commentators pushing that narrative relied more on ideology than on data. Whether motivated by anti-war sentiment, admiration for Russia, China or the Multipolar World, anti-Zionism, or broader geopolitical preferences, they consistently mistook wishful thinking for analysis. Although there are certainly legitimate criticisms of the war and how it began, those don't change what actually happened on the ground.
One additional point that would reinforce your argument is the remarkable adaptation of the broader energy market. While Iran's oil exports were crippled, US exports of crude oil, natural gas, LPG, and refined products surged to fill part of the gap. At the same time, Saudi Arabia and the UAE rapidly expanded exports through Yanbu and Fujairah, outside the Strait of Hormuz, allowing flows to recover to roughly 80% of pre-war levels despite the blockade. 🚢⛽
That helps explain why exports from Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE to major Asian economies held up far better than Iran's. The blockade damaged Iran disproportionately while its neighbors, along with the US, adapted.
The broader lesson is that markets don't stand still. Plainly, supply chains evolve, infrastructure adjusts and alternative routes emerge. That flexibility is precisely why the apocalyptic forecasts of a prolonged global energy crisis and $200 oil never materialized. 📈
Not clear the war is over yet. Obviously Iran got Trump to back down due to the upcoming mid-terms. Unclear what happens afterwards.
One question for Robin is whether the blockade is a cost effective tool. And if it is, whether the administration has what it takes to conduct it with the patience and discipline it requires.
So it’s a frozen conflict and Iran gets rich OR Iran wins because we won’t commit to an invasion OR Iran wins because the US breaks itself by mounting a deeply shambolic and of course unsuccessful invasion.
Weird. You said “Iran wins because we won’t commit to an invasion” or “U.S. breaks itself by mounting a deeply unsuccessful invasion”
Not sure what you’re trying to say but it was never in the war plan to have an invasion. It was never an objective to have regime change. It seems you’re unaware of the US objective in regards to Iran.
Are you referring to your media propaganda of choice when you say “they”? Please share with us who “they” is?
I don’t think you’re very bright, Noel. Your arguments here look stupid. Your thoughts and opinions don’t make sense you simply sound like an uninformed child.
It’s a pity really good economic analysis is mixed up with highly challengeable politics. Iran did and do desperately need the war to end but the US effectively surrendered because the US politicians were basically dumb in believing that US consumers/voters wouldn’t be impacted by a rise in global oil prices given the country’s status as a net oil producer. Nor did they appreciate that they have empowered Irans leverage over the Straits which is a far more effective and deployable lever than having nuclear arms. Trump and his sycophantic and highly incompetent cabinet need peace even more than the Iranians do. You couldn’t make this up but it’s what has happened. Still, the US have spent billions restoring the status quo and showing that the limit of their military capacity is $5 a gallon! A total laughing stock really.
Perhaps you are missing the resilience of the Iranian dictatorship. Sure the people are suffering, bit does the dictatorship care. To me further US aggression is like pushing on a string. Billions of missiles for
No benefits and adds to the Iranian people's misery. Israel during their independence perfected assymetric war fair. Yet has totally forgotten thise principles during this conflict.
Robin - thank you for your objective analysis on this. You nailed the blockade prediction, and have quantified the implications. Appreciate the work you share, for free, as my favorite substack author.
Robin - thank you for your objective analysis on this. You nailed the blockade prediction, and have quantified the implications. Appreciate the work you share, for free, as my favorite substack author.
What a lazy article.
Iran won the war because the US lost the war. The latter’s objective was pure and simple: regime change. Yet, the regime is stronger than it has been since at least the green movement. Meanwhile, there is little evidence of meaningful structural damage to Iran’s missile program. And nothing was achieved in degrading Iran’s nuclear program compared to the 12 day war.
Yes, the blockade was effective, but Iran did not capitulate and still extracted more wins from the MOU than it ever managed from the JCPOA, including an unprecedented lifting - albeit temporary - of primary US sanctions on the sale of its oil.
You spent a whole article claiming the blockade was effective. Yes it obviously was. That is not synonymous with Iran not winning the war.
Check the Rial lately?
Every day. It’s 175k vs usd compared to 167k pre war. So what? Even if it had doubled, it does not mean iran didn’t win the war. Anyone who claims Iran’s economy didn’t suffer from the war is in cuckoo land. Of course it did. That’s not how you measure win/loss in a war.
Ps. I bet you don’t even know how to check what level the currency is trading at.
Ps2. Have you checked Iran’s stock market? Thought not. It’s up 40% since pre war.
They conduct business in Yuan and crypto and business is good right now
They now have a small 1.7bn of USD that has been unfrozen and ring-fenced to only be used on US agriculture. Noel, your opinions are not accurate to reality they are merely partisan silliness.
Please understand something, politicians are not in charge of the U.S. they are in charge of shaping your opinions. Your opinions do not represent reality in the slightest.
Robin writes for intelligent people that invest.
Would you mind spending your useless comments on a page that’s more suitable for you? Maybe like Hasan Piker or Tucker Carlson where they discuss things that don’t exist?
75% inflation?
It’s actually closer to 100%. Does that mean they lost the war? Stick to Fox News.
Ahhh...the weak and lazy Fox News comment. Always shows up. 😄
Is this what you always do? Refuse to address the point with belittling and derision?
Is that supposed to be meaningful to me?
Iran just had billions in cash flown in from the emirates and their ships are moving through the strait right now. WTF are you here to even blather about?
lol of course you run to Ad Hominem instead of just going away, let alone admitting that you’re wrong.
The Emirates flew them a plane full of cash two weeks ago, and that’s in addition to anything else.
I’ve interacted with Robin a few times and he’s never said my commentary was unwanted or unwarranted. You’re the one who just showed themselves to be a fool by resorting to Ad Hominem instead of addressing what I said.
The reports of UAE giving money to Iran are false. UAE is a petrodollar alliance country they wouldn’t do anything without US orchestrating.
The idea that UAE would “fly a plane full of cash” is imbecilic. USD ring-fenced relief to Iran has not begun. It will come with strict rules on the usage of the digital transaction.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/06/13/uae-denies-false-reports-of-fund-transfer-to-iran.html
Maybe you should consider that the Iranian government is lying? It’s quite bizarre that you would believe the Iranians given their history of absurd lies. I admit when I’m wrong all the time. This is you being wrong and in an incredibly childlike fashion.
Ad hominem attacks are attacks on character. I’m attacking your argument not your character.
No babe, any kind of personal attack being substituted for a rational argument.
And when you suggested that I shouldn’t be commenting because of who I am, that is the same thing.
So now you’re not just a fool but a liar too.
That’s not an attack. It’s an observation based on your comments.
Riiiight…. I attacked your argument because it’s stupid. Do you often present stupid arguments and then get mad when called stupid?
The objective was never regime change. The objective was broadcasted clearly through the memo “Clean Break” written in 1995. In 2003, Wesley Clark explained it as 7 countries-5 years.
The lifting of sanctions ring-fences all the USD requiring it to be used on US agricultural products. To date, only 1.7bn has begun to be lifted and must be spent on US ag.
No, winning a war means that one is able to enforce their political will on the other nation[s].
It is not a matter of graphs or currency or markets.
The fact that they have significant power over the US was shown quite clearly and recently when Trump was about to give them a $330B war chest just to open the strait.
Then Trump only backed off when he couldn’t sell it as a win.
Oh and I’m not gonna put much stock in how folks were or were not able to predict a market as volatile as energy - especially when the physical price for oil has been recorded over $150 in recent weeks.
The data on the blockade is convincing, and I don't doubt it hurt Iran badly - I don't disagree here. But the piece proves a different point than the one in the title.
Economic pain and losing a war aren't the same thing and this distinction is the most important thing when looking at how you define a "win" in war.
Wars are won and lost on political objectives, and the US objective here was regime change. The regime is still standing, arguably more entrenched than before, and the MOU lifted primary sanctions on Iranian oil, something the JCPOA never achieved.
From an Iranian perspective, they fought off the aggressors, albeit at a high cost but one that is not unknown in wartime, and gained concessions around their oil - most importantly however, walked away with their dignity intact. This is something Iranians value strongly, their will, independence and freedom to decide their own fate. Take everything else away and they would see this as a win simply because they are not under the foot of US/Israel. Freedom is priceless.
A country can be economically battered and still walk away having denied its opponent the one outcome that mattered. Needing peace and winning the war aren't mutually exclusive. Both sides can want out, and one can still have gotten more of what it came for.
Both things can be true. The blockade hurt Iran, and the Strait of Hormuz is now an activated pressure point for the world, under Iran’s control. Three hundred billion will help Iran rebuild its destroyed infrastructure, resulting in rapid economic growth for years. No regime change has happened. Put it this way: both countries were forced to the negotiating table, and both are in a worse situation than before the war, but Iran seems to be getting a lot more out of the negotiations than the US.
Many of those who want to have their opinions heard (or even profit from them) sooner or later realize that the easiest way to get attention is by being provocative. Invariably what they find the most appealing is reflexive contrarianism, often of the most outrageous sort.
I am forced to conclude that another one has bitten the dust.
Excellent piece! Definitely a must-read for anyone still claiming that the June 17 Memorandum of Understanding proves Iran "won" the war or that it marked the end of US hegemony in favor of a so-called "multipolar world." 👏📊
As you point out, many of the commentators pushing that narrative relied more on ideology than on data. Whether motivated by anti-war sentiment, admiration for Russia, China or the Multipolar World, anti-Zionism, or broader geopolitical preferences, they consistently mistook wishful thinking for analysis. Although there are certainly legitimate criticisms of the war and how it began, those don't change what actually happened on the ground.
One additional point that would reinforce your argument is the remarkable adaptation of the broader energy market. While Iran's oil exports were crippled, US exports of crude oil, natural gas, LPG, and refined products surged to fill part of the gap. At the same time, Saudi Arabia and the UAE rapidly expanded exports through Yanbu and Fujairah, outside the Strait of Hormuz, allowing flows to recover to roughly 80% of pre-war levels despite the blockade. 🚢⛽
That helps explain why exports from Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE to major Asian economies held up far better than Iran's. The blockade damaged Iran disproportionately while its neighbors, along with the US, adapted.
The broader lesson is that markets don't stand still. Plainly, supply chains evolve, infrastructure adjusts and alternative routes emerge. That flexibility is precisely why the apocalyptic forecasts of a prolonged global energy crisis and $200 oil never materialized. 📈
Not clear the war is over yet. Obviously Iran got Trump to back down due to the upcoming mid-terms. Unclear what happens afterwards.
One question for Robin is whether the blockade is a cost effective tool. And if it is, whether the administration has what it takes to conduct it with the patience and discipline it requires.
Agree that the war is not over.
The US has a notoriously short attention span and I'm not sure that rationalists really understand the motivations of the Iranian gov't.
Look-- the US blew up their frigging children. This is not the sort of thing that is salved because some assets were unfrozen.
So it’s a frozen conflict and Iran gets rich OR Iran wins because we won’t commit to an invasion OR Iran wins because the US breaks itself by mounting a deeply shambolic and of course unsuccessful invasion.
You want a ground invasion using US troops??
No, I didn’t say that at all.
Why would I want that if I think it’s pointless?
Weird. You said “Iran wins because we won’t commit to an invasion” or “U.S. breaks itself by mounting a deeply unsuccessful invasion”
Not sure what you’re trying to say but it was never in the war plan to have an invasion. It was never an objective to have regime change. It seems you’re unaware of the US objective in regards to Iran.
Are you sure you don’t need English class?
They said regime change over and over. I’m done with your dishonest ass.
Are you referring to your media propaganda of choice when you say “they”? Please share with us who “they” is?
I don’t think you’re very bright, Noel. Your arguments here look stupid. Your thoughts and opinions don’t make sense you simply sound like an uninformed child.
You’re done because your argument is moronic.
It’s a pity really good economic analysis is mixed up with highly challengeable politics. Iran did and do desperately need the war to end but the US effectively surrendered because the US politicians were basically dumb in believing that US consumers/voters wouldn’t be impacted by a rise in global oil prices given the country’s status as a net oil producer. Nor did they appreciate that they have empowered Irans leverage over the Straits which is a far more effective and deployable lever than having nuclear arms. Trump and his sycophantic and highly incompetent cabinet need peace even more than the Iranians do. You couldn’t make this up but it’s what has happened. Still, the US have spent billions restoring the status quo and showing that the limit of their military capacity is $5 a gallon! A total laughing stock really.
The semantics.. who “WON” the war seem irrelevant to me. Did the US “ WIN “ the war? Who “WON” from ( e.g.) Israeli’s perspective?
Your analysis is ( as usual ) clear and accurate; but, why the irrelevant labels?
It’s maybe that you’re offended by the Iran “ WON” label because it ignores the impact of the blockade which is your baby.
Not my favourite article by you ( still one of my favourite Substack writers ).
HUGE victory for iranian hardliners.
HUGE defeat for US especially since this admin. won't learn from its mistakes.
(And, no, I don't think xi is a geopol genius or putin a brilliant strategist -- beneath you to dress up that straw dog.)
Great piece, Robin. It’s too bad there’s so many imbeciles commenting.
Perhaps you are missing the resilience of the Iranian dictatorship. Sure the people are suffering, bit does the dictatorship care. To me further US aggression is like pushing on a string. Billions of missiles for
No benefits and adds to the Iranian people's misery. Israel during their independence perfected assymetric war fair. Yet has totally forgotten thise principles during this conflict.
Robin - thank you for your objective analysis on this. You nailed the blockade prediction, and have quantified the implications. Appreciate the work you share, for free, as my favorite substack author.
Robin - thank you for your objective analysis on this. You nailed the blockade prediction, and have quantified the implications. Appreciate the work you share, for free, as my favorite substack author.